For months American media outlets have declared that it is basically a certainty that Chris Bosh leaves the Raptors this summer.
However, that point of view appears to be eroding.
ESPN's Marc Stein reported Friday that he now believes, after talking to a number of sources close to Bosh and the Raptors, that Bosh will sign with the Raptors long-term.

Having just spent some quality time with the Toronto Raptors while they were in Texas for a few days, I can assure you that Chris Bosh is thrilled LeBron James and Dwyane Wade have been at the heart of all the 2010 talk lately. Bosh got sick of 2010 questions -- from media gnats and fellow players -- long before it dawned on James to announce he's no longer taking those questions.

As recently as mid-September, I think it's fair to say the consensus was that Bosh was the big name most likely to leave his current team in the summer. But all of our checking with Raptors insiders suggests otherwise.

Teammates Jose Calderon and Andrea Bargnani recently have made public declarations of their belief that Bosh loves Toronto as a city and doesn't want to leave, which meshes with everything I've heard in the past week. The distinct feeling I was left with is that Bosh wants to be the undisputed star on his team and wants to play in a happening metropolis he enjoys. The Raptors and Toronto can make those things happen.

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n Dallas, where Bosh was raised, there are folks who have known him for years who remain convinced Bosh and James are a lock to sign somewhere together in 2010 free agency, with the metropolis of New York ranking as the primary option, followed by the idea that Bosh could/would join James in Cleveland. All of that, though, was based on the outdated premise that the Knicks or Cavs would be able to afford James and another max free agent. No team in the NBA, at present, expects to have that kind of cap room this coming summer.

So I believe the fresh guidance I've been given, which suggests Toronto -- as we stand some 230 days away from free agency -- is Bosh's most likely destination for the 2010-11 season and beyond.

I share that opinion. The question is, can the Raptors afford to pay Bosh a max extension with other big salaries (Turkoglu, Calderon, Bargnani) already on the books? If the cap goes down significantly, the Raptors and the cheapskates at MLSE will likely have to pay the luxury tax for a year or two, until it goes back up.